{
"version": "0.6.4",
"governed_families": 54,
"active_signals": 3,
"rsi_asof": "2026-03-26",
"current_rsi": 0.09873728734627346
}
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23072/get+live+api+metadata' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
{
"asof": "2026-03-26",
"rsi": 0.09873728734627346,
"total_hazard": 9.127886099331267,
"event_count": 3,
"dominant_theme": "geopolitical",
"dominant_event_family_id": "geopolitical_another_israeli_military_action_against_iran_in_2024_2025",
"theme_hazard_shares": {
"geopolitical": 0.9535310006726501,
"monetary_policy": 0.04646899932734992
},
"signal_count_by_source": {
"polymarket": 3
},
"events": [
{
"event_family_id": "geopolitical_another_israeli_military_action_against_iran_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "1551490",
"structural_theme": "geopolitical",
"category": "Kinetic",
"selected_probability_governed": 0.88,
"hazard_contribution": 8.654548793630235,
"theme_cap_applied": true,
"calibration_applied": "none"
},
{
"event_family_id": "monetary_policy_fed_emergency_rate_cut_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "616903",
"structural_theme": "monetary_policy",
"category": "Monetary",
"selected_probability_governed": 0.26,
"hazard_contribution": 0.42416373300995136,
"theme_cap_applied": false,
"calibration_applied": "becker"
},
{
"event_family_id": "geopolitical_russia_x_ukraine_ceasefire_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "561829",
"structural_theme": "geopolitical",
"category": "Kinetic",
"selected_probability_governed": 0.005,
"hazard_contribution": 0.04917357269108088,
"theme_cap_applied": true,
"calibration_applied": "none"
}
]
}
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23073/get+latest+regime+stress+index' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
{
"count": 54,
"families": [
{
"event_family_id": "electoral_trump_sentenced_to_house_arrest_2024",
"title": "Trump sentenced to house arrest?",
"structural_theme": "electoral",
"theme": "electoral",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "polymarket_electoral_trump_sentenced_to_house_arrest_2024",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "",
"title": "Trump sentenced to house arrest?",
"resolution_date": "2024-11-05",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Approved from the final curated Polymarket universe as a capped electoral governance signal.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "electoral_will_cyril_ramaphosa_be_the_next_president_of_south_africa_2024",
"title": "Will Cyril Ramaphosa be the next President of South Africa?",
"structural_theme": "electoral",
"theme": "electoral",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "polymarket_electoral_will_cyril_ramaphosa_be_the_next_president_of_south_africa_2024",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "",
"title": "Will Cyril Ramaphosa be the next President of South Africa?",
"resolution_date": "2024-06-15",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Approved from the final curated Polymarket universe as a capped electoral governance signal.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "electoral_will_nigel_farage_win_election_to_uk_parliament_2024",
"title": "Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?",
"structural_theme": "electoral",
"theme": "electoral",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "polymarket_electoral_will_nigel_farage_win_election_to_uk_parliament_2024",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "",
"title": "Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?",
"resolution_date": "2024-07-05",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Approved from the final curated Polymarket universe as a capped electoral governance signal.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "electoral_will_u_s_supreme_court_vote_to_reinstate_trump_on_colorado_s_2024_ballot_2024",
"title": "Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot?",
"structural_theme": "electoral",
"theme": "electoral",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "polymarket_electoral_will_u_s_supreme_court_vote_to_reinstate_trump_on_colorado_s_2024_ballot_2024",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "",
"title": "Will U.S. Supreme Court vote to reinstate Trump on Colorado's 2024 ballot?",
"resolution_date": "2024-03-04",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Approved from the final curated Polymarket universe as a capped electoral governance signal.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "fiscal_debt_us_debt_ceiling_hike_by_july_1_2023",
"title": "US debt ceiling hike by July 1?",
"structural_theme": "fiscal_debt",
"theme": "fiscal_debt",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "polymarket_fiscal_debt_us_debt_ceiling_hike_by_july_1_2023",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "polymarket",
"market_id": "",
"title": "US debt ceiling hike by July 1?",
"resolution_date": "2023-06-03",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Approved from the final curated Polymarket universe for fiscal-debt stress coverage.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "metaculus_debt_ceiling_2023",
"title": "US debt ceiling resolution risk in 2023",
"structural_theme": "fiscal_debt",
"theme": "fiscal_debt",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "metaculus_debt_ceiling_2023",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "metaculus",
"market_id": "",
"title": "US debt ceiling resolution risk in 2023",
"resolution_date": "2023-06-01",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Manual Metaculus fiscal-debt anchor requested for 2023 debt-ceiling coverage.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "metaculus_debt_default_risk_2023",
"title": "US debt default risk in 2023",
"structural_theme": "fiscal_debt",
"theme": "fiscal_debt",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "metaculus_debt_default_risk_2023",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "metaculus",
"market_id": "",
"title": "US debt default risk in 2023",
"resolution_date": "2023-06-30",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Manual Metaculus fiscal-debt anchor requested for debt-default risk monitoring.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "metaculus_government_shutdown_2025",
"title": "US government shutdown risk in 2025",
"structural_theme": "fiscal_debt",
"theme": "fiscal_debt",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "metaculus_government_shutdown_2025",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "metaculus",
"market_id": "",
"title": "US government shutdown risk in 2025",
"resolution_date": "2025-12-31",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
}
],
"discovered": false,
"notes": "Manual Metaculus fiscal-debt anchor requested for 2025 shutdown coverage.",
"approval_status": "APPROVED",
"approval_reason": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe.",
"decided_by": "bootstrap",
"decided_at": "2026-03-25T22:03:29+00:00",
"aggregation_policy": "max",
"_policy_backfilled": true
},
{
"event_family_id": "us_debt_ceiling_2023",
"title": "Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?",
"structural_theme": "fiscal_debt",
"theme": "fiscal_debt",
"category": "Sovereign",
"governance_source": "signal_registry_bootstrap",
"proxy_family_id": "us_debt_ceiling_2023",
"source_candidates": [
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "Manifold",
"market_id": "69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB",
"title": "Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?",
"resolution_date": "2023-05-31",
"quality_score": null,
"aggregation_policy": "max"
},
{
"link_type": "governed_reference",
"source": "Manifold",
"market_id": "69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB"}]}],"_note":"Response truncated for documentation purposes"}
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23074/get+governed+signal+registry' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
[
{
"asof": "2026-03-26",
"event_family_id": "geopolitical_another_israeli_military_action_against_iran_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?",
"structural_theme": "geopolitical",
"category": "Kinetic",
"selected_source": "polymarket",
"selected_market_id": "1551490",
"selected_probability_raw": 0.88,
"selected_probability_governed": 0.88,
"quality_score": 0.425129,
"source_priority": 3,
"candidate_count": 15,
"source_options": [
"polymarket"
],
"calibration_applied": "none",
"notes": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe."
},
{
"asof": "2026-03-26",
"event_family_id": "geopolitical_russia_x_ukraine_ceasefire_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?",
"structural_theme": "geopolitical",
"category": "Kinetic",
"selected_source": "polymarket",
"selected_market_id": "561829",
"selected_probability_raw": 0.005,
"selected_probability_governed": 0.005,
"quality_score": 0.660989,
"source_priority": 3,
"candidate_count": 1,
"source_options": [
"polymarket"
],
"calibration_applied": "none",
"notes": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe."
},
{
"asof": "2026-03-26",
"event_family_id": "monetary_policy_fed_emergency_rate_cut_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?",
"structural_theme": "monetary_policy",
"category": "Monetary",
"selected_source": "polymarket",
"selected_market_id": "616903",
"selected_probability_raw": 0.26,
"selected_probability_governed": 0.26,
"quality_score": 0.638627,
"source_priority": 3,
"candidate_count": 1,
"source_options": [
"polymarket"
],
"calibration_applied": "becker",
"notes": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe."
}
]
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23075/get+latest+governed+signal+snapshots' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
{
"asof": "2026-03-26",
"event_family_id": "geopolitical_another_israeli_military_action_against_iran_in_2024_2025",
"title": "Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?",
"structural_theme": "geopolitical",
"category": "Kinetic",
"selected_source": "polymarket",
"selected_market_id": "1551490",
"selected_probability_raw": 0.88,
"selected_probability_governed": 0.88,
"quality_score": 0.425129,
"source_priority": 3,
"candidate_count": 15,
"source_options": [
"polymarket"
],
"calibration_applied": "none",
"notes": "Bootstrap imported from legacy governed universe."
}
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23076/get+latest+signal+snapshot+by+event+family' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
[
{
"source": "kalshi",
"display_name": "Kalshi",
"enabled": true,
"has_credentials": true,
"reachable": true,
"auth_mode": "public_market_data",
"quality_tier": "A",
"role": "regulated_market",
"notes": "Public live catalog fetched from Kalshi /trade-api/v2/events with nested markets.",
"market_count": 519,
"fetched_at": "2026-03-26T12:48:21Z"
},
{
"source": "manifold",
"display_name": "Manifold",
"enabled": true,
"has_credentials": true,
"reachable": true,
"auth_mode": "public_get",
"quality_tier": "C",
"role": "longtail_coverage",
"notes": "Public live catalog fetched from /v0/markets.",
"market_count": 13,
"fetched_at": "2026-03-26T12:48:30Z"
},
{
"source": "metaculus",
"display_name": "Metaculus",
"enabled": true,
"has_credentials": false,
"reachable": false,
"auth_mode": "token",
"quality_tier": "A",
"role": "primary_calibrated",
"notes": "Missing credentials in env var METACULUS_API_TOKEN.",
"market_count": 0,
"fetched_at": "2026-03-26T12:48:19Z"
},
{
"source": "polymarket",
"display_name": "Polymarket",
"enabled": true,
"has_credentials": true,
"reachable": true,
"auth_mode": "public",
"quality_tier": "B",
"role": "liquidity_coverage",
"notes": "Public live catalog fetched from Gamma /events ordered by 24h volume.",
"market_count": 275,
"fetched_at": "2026-03-26T12:48:29Z"
}
]
curl --location --request GET 'https://zylalabs.com/api/12289/cassandra+risk+-+governed+macro-fragility+signal+api/23077/get+source+status' --header 'Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY'
注册后,每个开发者都会被分配一个个人 API 访问密钥,这是一个唯一的字母和数字组合,用于访问我们的 API 端点。要使用 卡桑德拉风险 - 管控的宏观脆弱性信号 API 进行身份验证,只需在 Authorization 标头中包含您的 bearer token。
| 标头 | 描述 |
|---|---|
授权
|
必需
应为 Bearer access_key. 订阅后,请查看上方的"您的 API 访问密钥"。
|
Cassandra-Risk 将预测市场的概率转换为投资组合的每日前瞻性风险评分
Cassandra-Risk 是为希望获得前瞻性覆盖而不是纯粹向后看的波动触发器的投资者、配置者、宏观交易员、定量研究人员和风险平台构建的管理宏观脆弱性信号 API
与其等待实现的波动率或回撤完全揭示脆弱性,不如让 Cassandra-Risk 将预测市场中的事件隐含风险转化为实时的制度压力指数 (RSI) 和可审计的事件家庭信号库。结果是一个干净的 API 层,用于获取可以解释、受管控并与命名合约相关联的实时宏观风险信号,而不是不透明的潜在因素
该 API 由一个包含三篇论文的公开研究计划和一个完全版本化的 GitHub 代码库支持:
论文 1
超越风险价值:通过预测市场事件预测量化制度脆弱性
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21272.05124
论文 2
Cassandra-Risk 论文 2:超越回测 - 扩展、校准及基于预测的风险覆盖的边界条件
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17209.12644
论文 3
Cassandra-Risk 论文 3:跨平台预测市场集成与受管控信号基础设施
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22910.75848
Cassandra-Risk 的与众不同不仅在于信号,还在于围绕信号的治理架构
该 API 基于:
- 受管理的事件注册表而非不受控制的抓取
- 明确的结构主题分类
- 限制推广的实时入场与决策审计跟踪
- 确定性的家庭选择规则
- 在经验上合理的有界校准逻辑
- 公共与运营者路线分离
- 适合商业 API 打包的限速交付
当前输出层包括:
- 实时制度压力指数 (RSI)
- 受管控的事件家庭信号快照
- 被接纳家庭的受管控注册可见性
- 跨实时适配器的源状态监控
这使得用户能够回答如下问题:
- 当前的宏观制度是风险偏好还是风险厌恶
- 现在哪个事件家庭主导脆弱性
- 实时信号是由地缘政治升级、货币压力、选举不确定性还是其他结构主题驱动的
- 现在活跃的受管控信号有多少
- 哪些具体事件合约在为实时发布的风险状态做出贡献
为什么这很重要:
传统覆盖通常是反应式的。Cassandra-Risk 被设计为前瞻性的。它将预测市场的概率视为事件空间传感器,并将其转换为可以位于自主或系统性投资组合之上的受管控宏观风险层
Cassandra 程序的研究亮点包括:
- 论文 1 为基于预测市场的制度脆弱性信号建立了公共受管控基线
- 论文 2 表明天真的事件宇宙扩展会以可解读的方式降低信号质量,然后通过校准、修剪和集中治理恢复性能
- 论文 3 将框架转换为具有类型边界、实时 API 交付和可审计推广控制的受管控信号基础设施
该 API 特别适合于:
- 宏观覆盖仪表板
- 自主投资组合风险监控
- 配置者报告层
- 内部定量研究工具
- 系统性战略制度过滤器
- 事件驱动的风险监测系统
核心公共端点:
- /v1/meta
- /v1/registry/governed
- /v1/rsi/latest
- /v1/signals/latest
- /v1/signals/latest/{event_family_id}
- /v1/sources/status
Cassandra-Risk 不是通用的情绪馈送。它是一个有治理的宏观脆弱性引擎,具有已发布的研究谱系、实时事件注册表,以及从事件合约到 API 响应的可审计信号路径
重要提示:
该 API 提供研究和风险监控信号。它不构成投资建议、券商活动或交易证券或事件合约的请求
每个端点返回与宏观脆弱性信号相关的特定数据。例如,`/v1/rsi/latest` 端点提供最新的制度压力指数,包括当前的 RSI 水平和主导主题,而 `/v1/registry/governed` 端点列出了已批准的事件类别及其属性
关键字段因端点而异。对于 `/v1/rsi/latest`,重要字段包括 `rsi`、`dominant_theme` 和 `total_hazard`。`/v1/registry/governed` 端点的字段包括 `event_family_id`、`title` 和 `approval_status`,这些字段提供了对事件家族的洞察
响应数据采用 JSON 格式结构,包含键值对。例如 `/v1/rsi/latest` 端点返回一个包含最新 RSI 详情的单一对象,而 `/v1/signals/latest` 端点返回一个对象数组,每个对象代表一个受管信号快照
每个端点提供不同的信息 `/v1/meta` 端点提供有关 API 服务的元数据 而 `/v1/sources/status` 给出数据源的健康状态 `/v1/signals/latest/{event_family_id}` 端点专注于特定事件家族信号
数据来源于预测市场,特别是像Polymarket和Kalshi这样的的平台。每个信号都与特定的市场合同相关联,确保生成风险评分所使用信息的透明度和可追溯性
通过受管理的事件注册和明确的结构分类来维护数据准确性 API采用校准和修剪技术以提高信号质量 这在支持该API的研究论文中有详细说明
典型的使用案例包括用于风险评估的宏观叠加仪表板,自主投资组合风险监控和系统策略阶段过滤器 用户可以利用API根据实时宏观风险信号预测市场动向
用户可以分析返回的数据以识别宏观制度趋势评估特定事件家族的风险贡献并监控数据源的健康状况例如通过检查`dominant_theme`和`hazard_contribution`用户可以对投资组合调整做出明智的决策